2019, THE LAFONTAINE´S YEAR

Linkedin #big ideas

Considering the entire predictions set forth herein, to the year of 2019 we have to work like ants to be entitled to enjoy the prerogative of cicadas some years to come. 2019 shall be the La fontaine´s year or in clear words, the year of sharp management and economic tightnening.

analysts foresee the economic recession will hit the united States around 2020. Meantime,The European Union is facing hard times with "brexit" and the central bank policy of deleverage.

The other side, China brace to solve the nuisances left by trade war with USA and economic slowdown, with PIB  expectance to 2018 at 6.5 per cent. (a feeble growth to Chinese purposes). However if applied in the west countries, would be an amazing performance. However, western states will never attain such level, cheering to lay down in 2.5 up to 3 percent.

last but non least, the emerging markets must be ready to face these travails, mainly with the united states/FED hike rates and seth forth sustainable policy to decrease the public debt

Summing up, dark clouds approach, drawing up a bleak future and defy our settled boundaries. The new technologies and innovations is bringing disruptions and rearranging the backdrop with new global players, envisiong a new world of opportunities.

the #big idea, seth forth your goals, bring more light to the path and keep on moving.

Author´s full details:

Paulo Oliveira S.Silvano

lawyer - Consultant

Extension in maritime law (shipping, oil & gas, loss and averages, etc.)

"Expertise" in ports - having worked for 10 years in VALE ports.

Maritime repairs and Agency.

email: paulosilvano.juridico@gmail.com

Linkedin: BR.linkedin.com/in/paulosilvano

http://paulosilvano.blogspot.com.br

CHINA HAS LANDED

mandatory reading about new geopolitical movements of global players


Beijing’s ambitious campaign to dominate global maritime commerce is in full swing. Here’s how the U.S. must respond.

In a speech at the Hudson Institute earlier this month, Vice President Mike Pence said.... read more at

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/china-global-maritime-commerce-ambitions-us-must-respond/

CONTAINERS THROUGHPUT IN BRAZIL AND WORLDWIDE

CONTAINERS THROUGHPUT IN BRAZIL AND WORLDWIDE

According to UNCTAD maritime review, edition 2018, the world container throughput reached a level of 752 millions TEUs in 2017(tweenty equivalent unity). The Asian continent responding to 63%, Europe 16%, North America 8% and Developing America with 6% of volumes moved.

Shanghai ports,  achieved the best performance with an average of 40.2 million TEUs in throughput/moved. The vessels time staying in port (loading/discharging operations) has enhanced to 31.2 hours in port, rather than 33.6 the last 2016 year. Bearing in mind that we are talking about mega containers ships of 15.000 to 18.000 unities for loading and unloading operations.

Regarding to the seaborne trade Market, there has been an increase of 6.2 per cent in 2017 with the carrier CMA-CGM heading the list of best revenues reach 32.1 percent, followed by the Maersk carriers with almost 15% revenues and an enticed EBITDA, mainly after the aquisition of Hamburg Sud and Mercosul Line ( a coastal/ feeder shipowner) in Brazil.

Important to point out that these throughput and figures improvement has been supported by the merger and acquisitions and the alliances of the top five main liners carriers, held in 2017 and responding to 50 per cent of the containers Market share. Namely:  Maersk, MSC(Mediterranean Shipping and Co), CMA-CGM, China Ocean Shipping Company(COSCO) and Happag Lloyd.

These five leading containers companies has consolidated their monopoly in  three majors alliances of containers liners worldwide as follows: 2M, The Ocean Alliance and the Alliance. Therefore, who is who in this consolidation? Let´s see hereafter:

ü 

2M: MSC and Maersk Line

ü  Ocean Alliance: CMA-CGM, China Ocean Shipping company(COSCO) and Evergreen.

ü  The Alliance: Hapag-Lloyd, Yang Ming and Orient Network Express(ONE)

These three alliances altogether, canvassed around 93 percent of tradelane east-west route in containers movements transported.

All figures sourced by UNCTAD site: https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt2018_en.pdf

Well, and how about the Brazil? According to the Antaq (Agencia Nacional de Transportes Aquaviario) figures depictured in site : http://portal.antaq.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Boletim-Informativo-1%C2%BAT2018_Vers%C3%A3o_-Publica%C3%A7%C3%A3o.pdf.  The best performance achieved by the Brazilian ports last 2017 year, reached almost 10 million containers moved.

These figures mean less than 25% per cent of handled in Shanghai port, (40.2 million) containers throughput same year 2017. Should the Brazil intend to be a prominent global logistic player, urge to undertake necessary infrastructure reforms and revise its logistical and ports policy to embrace the new era of digitalized and autonomous ports, especially in the container Market segment.

We hope the new President, ministers and lawmakers emerged from the ballot box, may reinforce the PPP´s (Private Public Partnership) instruments to allow new and Strong long-term foreign investment,  seizing the opportunity of Chinese boom in Belt & Roads projects already deployed in China, South Asia and even in Europe. This private capital, can be achieved by South américa, mainly, the Brazilian ports with transparency, enviroment care and sustainability. 

To learn more about this or others maritime subjects, please contact our office, we are at your entire disposal.

Author full details:

Paulo Sergio Silvano de Oliveira

lawyer - Consultant

Extension in maritime law (shipping, oil & gas, loss and averages, etc.)

"Expertise" in ports - having worked for 10 years in VALE ports;

Maritime ships repairs, Ships Agency, Charterers and Trading companies.

e-mail: paulosilvano.juridico@gmail.com

Linkedin: BR.linkedin.com/in/paulosilvano

http://paulosilvano.blogspot.com.br

DEMOCRACIA E PODER

Nestes tempos extremados em que estamos vivenciando o caminhar das sociedades, principalmente, a ocidental, sempre oscilando de um lado a outro, mas, raramente o pendulo se posiciona em equilíbrio. Tem se que esta insatisfação, expõe suas razoes na forma em que as coisas se apresentam e a maneira como os governantes tem exercido o poder político, que se desvanece, dissociado das legitimas aspirações do povo.

Em uma sociedade digitalizada que vivemos, as demandas sociais primárias, não conseguem ser absorvidas pela classe política, imersa em seus próprios interesses e concepções. Desta forma, cria-se um abismo entre os partidos políticos e o conjunto social, em termos de obediência e cumplicidade. Assim, muitos partidos estão sendo simplesmente triturados e desprezados pelo cidadão digital.

A esquerda, como fenômeno, que despontou em seguida ao período pós-guerra, em meio a uma sociedade, um tanto niilista à época, que buscava respostas para tanta barbárie e mortos; encontrou abrigo na mente das pessoas que acreditaram nas propostas socialistas de redução das desigualdades, inclusão social e maior distribuição de renda. Uma espécie de “neo” Renascimento.

Contudo, este belo e oportuno discurso, era apenas um deslocamento circunstancial e na prática, se mostrava outra coisa. Mesmo nos países desenvolvidos, com uma sociedade mais evoluída e organizada, a esquerda continua a perder terreno. Não para o centro ou direita. Mas, tendente à extrema direita. Provavelmente, na França, o presidente Macron não será reeleito, abrindo caminho para vitória de Marine Le Pen.

Na américa Latina, a esquerda está imersa em um mar de privilégios e corrupção. No Brasil em que estes governos se sucederam por quase 14 anos no poder. Houve pequenos avanços e gigantescos retrocessos. A sociedade encontra-se bastante fragmentada e disforme.

                                                               

                                     

O tecido social e as instituições estão atomizadas. Isto não é involuntário, pois, é mais fácil converter um indivíduo a determinada ideologia do que um grupo. Com isto, famílias estão desagregadas, experimentando novos conceitos e pilares. Como resultado, a divisão entre “nós e eles”.

Com efeito, o mundo caminha para governos de direita e extrema direita. Centralizadores de poder. Os EUA, não obstante o desprezo da imprensa, elegeram Donald Trump, outros países, também decidiram por governos de direita, como:  Russia, Turquia, Israel, Austria, Holanda, Itália, dentre outros.

Concluindo, por que esta inflexão dos povos? Para responder a esta pergunta temos que recorrer a sociologia de Talcott Parsons[i]. Em brilhante trabalho sobre o poder e suas nuances, Talcott nos apresenta o seguinte pensamento:

“a saber, que o poder é mercadoria rara, que só podemos possuir às custas de outra pessoa. Ou ainda: que o poder que possuo é a contrapartida do fato de que alguém não o possui.”

Neste sentido, o poder como potência, é exercido de forma singular pelos governos, com o pêndulo da ideologia determinando a finalidade a que se destina. Ainda um pouco mais dos excertos de Parsons, temos que:

“Se X tem poder, é preciso que em algum lugar haja um ou vários Y que sejam desprovidos de tal poder. É o que a sociologia norte-americana chama de teoria do “poder de soma zero”: o poder é uma soma fixa, tal que o poder de A implica o não poder de B. Esta tese (ou este pressuposto, quando a tese não é expressamente enunciada), encontra-se em autores tão diferentes ideologicamente como Marx, Nietzsche, Max Weber, Raymond Aron, Wright Mills...” [ii]

Agora sim, completando o raciocínio, a Democracia precisa do poder para organizar de forma teleológica os governos e fazer valer o pacto social. Por sua vez, a sociedade tem que estar atenta e cobrar governos eleitos pelo voto, a cumprirem seu programa apresentado, estabelecendo metas e medição de performance. Ao mesmo tempo, o poder necessita da Democracia para legitima-lo em consolidar os ideais mais elevados da sociedade.

Sobre o autor:

Paulo S.Silvano Oliveira

Advogado / Consultor

Extensão em Direito marítimo (transporte marítimo, oil & gás, avarias, etc)

“Expertise” em portos – tendo atuado por 10 anos em portos da VALE.

Empresas de reparos navais e Agencias marítimas.

e-mail: paulosilvano.juridico@gmail.com

Linkedin: BR.linkedin.com/in/paulosilvano

Blog: http://paulosilvano.blogspot.com.br

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[i] Talcott Edgar Frederick Parsons (Colorado Springs, 13 de dezembro de 1902 — Munique, 8 de maio de 1979) foi um sociólogoestadunidense. Seu trabalho teve grande influência nas décadas de 1950 e 1960.  – Fonte: Wikipedia / google

[ii] Do Livro “O que é o Poder”, Gerard Lebrun, editora Brasilience, 1981

A NEW TYPE OF COMMODITIES EMPIRE

That´s why president Trump is bringing back the main and relevant tech industries to the United States, granting them tax relief. While China is becoming the empire of commodities and logístics( Infrastructure)in Asia. The western countries, instead, USA and EU, in a fast paced, search to develop and enhance the technological projects and protect these intangible assets such as: brands, trade secrets, goodwill and intelectual properties as well. A day will come, when these two strategies converge and shall be needed each other. Pls read more at:

https://splash247.com/a-new-type-of-empire/


photo courtesy by google: https://www.google.com/search?q=COMMODITIES+FOTO&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs3sK5rJ_dAhUFWpAKHUMgDLkQsAR6BAgFEAE&biw=1366&bih=631#imgrc=nxidBTrith-P4M:

PRESIDENTE DA PETROBRAS PEDE DEMISSÃO

https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2018/06/01/presidente-da-petrobras-pede-demissao-do-cargo.htm



Vivemos tempos realmente estranhos, estes em que um grupo de caminhoneiros se organizam via mídias sociais e derrubam o presidente de uma gigante estatal do Petróleo, a Petrobras e colocam em balburdia toda a equipe de governo, população e agitam as bolsas de valores no Brasil e exterior.

Um movimento difuso, sem liderança explicita conseguiu o imponderável. Contudo não conseguem resolver o problema inerente a própria profissão deles, ou seja, o valor do frete. Todos sabem que o Brasil vive um excedente de caminhões e pouca carga para transportar, dada a recessão que o pais vem atravessando.

A lei do mercado é implacável,  rege-se pela oferta e demanda(procura) e onde existe excesso, invariavelmente o preço tende a baixar. Junta-se a isso a flutuação do preço do petróleo a nível mundial. O que a categoria não consegue entender é que o petróleo é um produto caro para explorar e refinar. Somente para se ter uma ideia o custo médio de operação diário de uma plataforma gira em torno de USD 400,000 por dia, fora outros custos marginais.

No transporte marítimo de cargas, os armadores para se prevenir dessas flutuações e alta do petróleo, criaram uma taxa extra para o combustível, (BAF – bunker additional factor)  embutida no frete, que é regido por uma conferência internacional de frete entre os armadores. Desta forma o mercado vai se ajustando. Mas, estes são grandes “players” do transporte mundial e não esperam por governos.

BELOVED HOMELAND, BRAZIL

BELOVED HOMELAND, BRAZIL

Our beloved country is facing hard times to preserve the fresh democracy and institutions placed to the test with last events steemed from the lava-jato (car wash) operations. Which resulted in arresting of the majors businessman and politicians convicted by corruptions and bribery. The watershed moment was the arresting of former presidente Lula (Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva), which rattled the Brazil and international media.

Lula da Silva, has been the most influential leader from the left party PT in decades, that governed Brazil  for almost 20 years, including his sucessor Dilma Roussef, who has undergone a impeachment process by the national congress, obeyed all requirements of legal due process along with the Supreme Tribunal Federal, removing her from the post of presidente

The spate of these events has lead the international press to undertake a erroneous reading of facts. Most of correspondentes, mainly, non residents, misconstrue the events, providing a  false reality to his readers.

The complexity of the subject mixed with the lack of legal knowledge and the Brazilian procedural law have lead the foreign correspondents at the continuous stress work. Given that their principals charge them for more News, and so, in order to attend their requirements, they send disconnected details from reality, entailing a flawed logic and unteneable facts.

Nevertheless, the Brazilian civil society is following this case closely and not only following, but supporting the Lava-Jato and also the international entities and plenipotentiary of the abroad embassies in Brazil. Only for a recall, lets make a perusal in the former president Lula trial from the begining til the final award by the TRF 4 and  mittimus issued by  Sergio Moro Judge. Let´s see hereinafter:

ü  The former presidente Lula was convited to a little less than 10 years of prision by the Federal Judge Sergio Moro.

ü  Whereas his lawyers have entered with appeal in the TRF 4 court. The Judges of that court, did not uphold the appeal, rather, increasing the prision sentence to 12 years.

ü  Unsatisfied with the results, Lawyers of defendant, once more enter the same court with referral named embargos declaratórios “motion of declaration” to clarify some ambiguities in the sentence.

ü  thereupon, defendant´s lawyers tried to get a writ of “habeas corpus” in the Superior Tribunal de Justiça - STJ (against de prision during the judging of appeals) However, the STJ, the whole Judges has rejected the writ unanimously.(11x0)

ü  Once more, defence Lawyers argued new HABBEAS CORPUS application, this time in Supremo Tribunal Federal – STF, but again, luck was not favourable to them and the STF Judges has rejected the habeas corpus application to this case by the score of 06x05 (hard case)

  

As we can see the Brazilian procedural penal code is prodigal in appeals and the Federal Brazilian Constitution assists in guaranteeing the right of the accused to the presumption of innocence which is enshrined in Articl 5º, LVII - CFB/88. Therefore, this same article do not preclude the prision after the second instance conviction.

Thats the key point of the two mainstreams, In line with the terms of reference to the Lava_jato breakthrough focused on two main issues: One class and the civil society deemed to the discussion on the reform of penal understanding of prision after the second instance conviction. The other side the School of thoughts defending the last court of appeals to allow /order the defendant prision.

these are complex issues, but the facts must be disclosed in their fullness. Important to point out that the rights of appeals of person arrested keep going in the superior courts pursuing his release through the different appeals.

Author´s full details:

Paulo Oliveira S.Silvano

lawyer - Consultant

Extension in maritime law (shipping, oil & gas, loss and averages, etc.)

"Expertise" in ports - having worked for 10 years in VALE ports.

Maritime repairs and Agency.

email: paulosilvano.juridico@gmail.com

Linkedin: BR.linkedin.com/in/paulosilvano

http://paulosilvano.blogspot.com.br

image courtesy: https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C2CHZL_pt-BRBR705BR705&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=ejTRWv-aD4jGwASZi5u4CA&q=foto+justi%C3%A7a+e+bandeira+do+brazil&oq=foto+justi%C3%A7a+e+bandeira+do+brazil&gs_l=psy-ab.12...91124.98923.0.101808.32.32.0.0.0.0.207.4138.0j27j1.28.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..5.0.0....0.HA5eKeP1B1E#imgrc=wZI-i13C-rNZaM: